Soil & Water Res., 2007, 2(4):156-168 | DOI: 10.17221/2109-SWR

Predictability of flood events in view of current meteorology and hydrology in the conditions of the Czech RepublicOriginal Paper

Lucie Březková1, Milan ©álek1, Eva Soukalová1, Miloą Starý2
1 Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Brno, Czech Republic
2 Faculty of Civil Engineering, Brno University of Technology, Brno, Czech Republic

In central Europe, floods are natural disasters causing the greatest economic losses. One way to reduce partly the flood-related damage, especially the loss of lives, is a functional objective forecasting and warning system that incorporates both meteorological and hydrological models. Numerical weather prediction models operate with horizontal spatial resolution of several dozens of kilometres up to several kilometres, nevertheless, the common error in the localisation of the heavy rainfall characteristic maxima is mostly several times as large as the grid size. The distributive hydrological models for the middle sized basins (hundreds to thousands of km2) operate with the resolution of hundreds of meters. Therefore, the (in) accuracy of the meteorological forecast can heavily influence the following hydrological forecast. In general, we can say that the shorter is the duration of the given phenomenon and the smaller area it hits, the more difficult is its prediction. The time and spatial distribution of the predicted precipitation is still one of the most difficult tasks of meteorology. Hydrological forecasts are created under the conditions of great uncertainty. This paper deals with the possibilities of the current hydrology and meteorology with regard to the predictability of the flood events. The Czech Hydrometeorological Institute is responsible by law for the forecasting flood service in the Czech Republic. For the precipitation and temperature forecasts, the outputs of the numerical model of atmosphere ALADIN are used. Moreover, the meteorological community has available operational outputs of many weather prediction models, being run in several meteorological centres around the world. For the hydrological forecast, the HYDROG and AQUALOG models are utilised. The paper shows examples of the hydrological flood forecasts from the years 2002-2006 in the Dyje catchment, attention being paid to floods caused by heavy rainfalls in the summer season. The results show that it is necessary to take into account the predictability of the particular phenomenon, which can be used in the decision making process during an emergency.

Keywords: meteorological forecast; hydrological forecast; model ALADIN; model HYDROG; summer floods; flash floods; case study; predictability

Published: December 31, 2007  Show citation

ACS AIP APA ASA Harvard Chicago Chicago Notes IEEE ISO690 MLA NLM Turabian Vancouver
Březková L, ©álek M, Soukalová E, Starý M. Predictability of flood events in view of current meteorology and hydrology in the conditions of the Czech Republic. Soil & Water Res. 2007;2(4):156-168. doi: 10.17221/2109-SWR.
Download citation

References

  1. Březková L., Soukalová E. (2006): Operative hydrological forecast in winter season - floods caused by snow melting. In: 13th Conf. Danubian Countries on the Hydrological Forecasting and Hydrological Bases of Water Management, 2006, Belgrade, 4.
  2. Davies-Jones R., Trapp R.J., Bluestein H.B. (2001): Tornadoes and convective storms. In: Doswell Ch. (ed.): Severe Convective Storms, AMS, Boston, 167-221. Go to original source...
  3. Doswell C.A. (2001): Severe convective storms - an overview. In: Doswell Ch. (ed.): Severe Convective Storms, AMS, Boston, 1-26. Go to original source...
  4. ECMWF (2006): Description of the ECMWF Forecasting System in February 2006. Available at http://www.ecmwf.int/products/data/operational system/ description/description 2006.html.
  5. Frotsch J.M., Forbes G.S. (2001): Mesoscale convective systems. In: Doswell Ch. (ed.): Severe Convective Storms, AMS, Boston, 323-357. Go to original source...
  6. Houze R.A. (1993): Cloud Dynamics. International Geophysics Series. Volume 53. Academic Press, San Diego.
  7. Jacobsen P. (1980): Urban Surface Runoff Simulation. [PhD. Thesis.] Technical University Denmark, Lyngby.
  8. Janouąek M. (2006): Parameters of Operational Model ALADIN. Available at http://www.chmi.cz/meteo/ov/aladin/oper/operverze.php. (in Czech)
  9. McCuen R., Snyder W. (1986): Hydrologic Modelling. Statistical Methods and Applications. Prentice Hall, New Jersey.
  10. Novák P. (2004): Czech weather radar data utilization for precipitation nowcasting, in European Conference on Radar in Meteorology (ERAD). ERAD Publication Series. Volume 2, 459-463.
  11. Soukalová E. (2002): Hydrological monitoring in the Morava river basin. In: Participation of Woman in the Fields of Meteorology, Operational Hydrology and Related Sciences, May 16-17, 2002, Bratislava. Conference Abstract, full text on enclosed CD.
  12. Starý M. (1991-2005): HYDROG - Program system for simulation, operative prediction and operative control of water runoff. Brno, Czech Republic.
  13. Starý M. (2005): Operative Control Outflow from River Basins during Floodings and Use of Artificial Intelligence Methods. VUTIUM Brno, Czech Republic.
  14. Stephenson D., Meadows M. (1986): Kinematic Hydrology and Modeling. Elsevier, New York.
  15. ©álek M. (1998): Meteorological causes of the floods in July 1997 in the Czech Republic. In: Bronstert A., Ghazi A., Hladny J., Kundzewicz Z., Menzel L. (eds): The Odra/Oder Flood in Summer 1997. Proc. European Expert Meeting in Potsdam, May 18, 1998, Potsdam, 61-74.
  16. ©álek M., Novák P., Kráčmar J. (2002): The utilization of the remote sensing methods during the flood in the Czech Republic in August 2002. Meteorological Bulletin, 55, No. 6. (in Czech)
  17. ©álek M., Cheze J.-l., Handwerker J., Delobbe, L., Uijlenhoet R. (2004): Radar Techniques for Identifying Precipitation Type and Estimating Quantity of Precipitation. COST Office, Brussels.
  18. ©álek M., Březková L., Novák P. (2006): The use of radar in hydrological modelling in the Czech Republic - case studies of flash floods. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 6: 229-236. Go to original source...
  19. Yessad K. (2006): Basics about ARPEGE/IFS, ALADIN and AROME in the cycle 30 of Arpege/IFS. Available at http://www.cnrm.meteo.fr/gmapdoc/article.php3?idarticle=29.

This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY NC 4.0), which permits non-comercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original publication is properly cited. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.